EVEN THE WORST 10-YEAR HOLD ONLY LOST 3%.

73 of the last 74 ten-year holds were positive. Time fixes almost everything housing.

99%

Of 10-year holds since 1942 were positive (73 of 74)

−3%

The single worst 10-year return — buyer who bought at the 2005 peak

~60%

Median 10-year cumulative return across all 74 holds

% Change in Home Value · 10 Years After Purchase

Buy Yr10-Yr

1942156%

1943156%

1944122%

194599%

194662%

194737%

194835%

194935%

195031%

195124%

195220%

19539%

195410%

195512%

195612%

195711%

195815%

195923%

196032%

Buy Yr10-Yr

196137%

196241%

196343%

196453%

196564%

196674%

196795%

1968114%

1969124%

1970121%

1971122%

1972118%

1973120%

1974112%

1975107%

1976107%

1977104%

197892%

197978%

Buy Yr10-Yr

198066%

198158%

198257%

198354%

198450%

198544%

198637%

198727%

198826%

198930%

199043%

199153%

199266%

199379%

199498%

1995121%

1996119%

199799%

199865%

Buy Yr10-Yr

199947%

200029%

200116%

200213%

200314%

20045%

2005−3%

20061%

200714%

200835%

200945%

201067%

2011107%

2012106%

201396%

201495%

201592%

Source: Robert Shiller historical home price data (Irrational Exuberance / Yale) and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Cumulative % change from December of purchase year to December ten years later. Pre-1987 figures from Shiller's longer-term series; 1987–present from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. 2005 buyer = the only negative 10-year hold in 84 years (sold December 2015 at the late post-crisis low).

The Time Horizon

Year-to-year, home prices wiggle. Over a decade, the picture flattens.

Ten-year holds since 1942

Were positive

Was negative — at −3%

Translation: buy and hold for a decade and history says you almost certainly come out ahead — even if you bought at the worst possible moment in 84 years.

The one negative window? Buying right at the 2005 peak and selling at the late post-crisis low. By 2017 — two more years — even that buyer was back in the green.

When you find the right one, we'll figure it out.

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